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Rung 4 of 5 · The lender's view

The ratios that forecast cash trouble

The ratios your banker runs on your numbers, and the trends that warn of trouble before the cash runs short.

For educational purposes only. This material is general education about managing cash flow. It isn't legal, tax, accounting, lending, or investment advice, and reading it doesn't make you our client. Every business is different. Before you act on anything here, confirm it with your attorney, your CPA or tax advisor, your lender, and any other professional who advises your company. See the terms of use.

Watch the trend more than the level. A 1.3x DSCR that was 1.8x a year ago is a louder signal than a steady 1.2x. Load a company below and read the status labels first, then the trend in each one over the last four quarters.

Cash health checkSample: $50M distributor · figures in $M
RatioCalculationValueStatusWhat it tells you

Trend signals to watch

DSO rising faster than revenue means collections are slipping or sales are being pushed into the channel. DIO rising (fewer inventory turns) points to soft demand or obsolete stock. DPO stretching sharply means suppliers are financing the company, which lasts until they tighten terms. Capex below depreciation for several years makes free cash flow look better than it is, and the deferred spending comes due later. Revolver availability shrinking week over week, especially near a springing covenant, is usually the last warning before a crisis.

Runway (cash plus undrawn availability, divided by monthly net burn) is the simplest test. With less than 12 months of runway, start the financing conversation now. Below 6 months, the lender sets the terms.

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